Interest rates will not go up until the first half of 2020

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The European Central Bank (ECB) decided this Thursday to keep interest rates unchanged until first half of 2020. In other words, the interest rate applicable to the main refinancing operations and the interest rates applicable to the marginal credit facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0%, 0.25% and -0, 40%, respectively and throughout the euro zone. . An unexpected move has again helped equity markets that have received the news moderately well.

Sea cual sea el caso, esta decisión que se tomó dentro del BCE fue cantada tras la publicación de los últimos datos macroeconómicos. En el que se nota una desaceleración de la economía de la eurozona y donde algunos países ya se encuentran en territorio negativo. Esto es lo que esta pasando en Germany and Italy and with this scenario, nothing else could be done with monetary policy. In other words, at least this year we will continue in the same situation and this is always good news for small and medium investors.

Interest rates at 0% in 2019

The position taken is a consequence of the poor prospects for economic growth in the euro zone. Even though on this occasion, the European Central Bank has also reviewed the economic projections until 2021, both growth and inflation. For this purpose, it should be noted that 2018 ended with inflation in the euro area of ​​1.8%, while on the contrary, growth was also 1.8%. The ECB's forecasts for 2019 advance a growth from 1.1% to 1.2%, while it falls from 1.6% to 1.4% for 2020 and from 1.5% to 1.4% in two years .

With these data on the table, it has not been possible to make another monetary decision and whatever the case was, it was one more measure than expected in the equity markets of the old continent. Even though at the end of the trading session the stock markets have stayed flat after initial optimism. In a day in which the Stock Market has gone from more to less and now what is being analyzed is the impact on the fall in economic growth, with a correction of a few tenths of a percentage in its expectations for the next three years. And this factor no longer likes small and medium investors so much.

Uneven reception in values

The reaction of national equities has not been uniform, far from it. It has been exactly the values of the electricity sector that have received the best decision that interest rates will not rise until the first half of 2020. With increases in the configuration of their prices that range between 1% and 2%. And where the strong upward pull that Endesa has experienced (+ 2%) stands out, which has been around 23.20 euros per share and already very close to the free rise figure. This is the best of all because you no longer have resistance ahead and you have the free path to head towards 25 or 26 euros minimally.

To this end, Bankinter's analysis department has placed and reinforced Endesa in its portfolio of securities for the month of June. Thinking that it may be one of the best values that can perform in the coming months in the selective index of national equities. After having corrected their positions going up to 22 euros, creating some doubts among small and medium investors. Now you just need to overcome the complex resistance that you have near the levels in the 23, 35 euros per share.

Electricity in the lead

There is no doubt that the fact that interest rates do not rise until the first half of 2020 has done very well for all electric companies. They have been the ones who have led the rises of the Ibex 35 with a clear upward trend from the beginning. Not surprisingly, these monetary measures favor your lines of business and therefore they have not been able to do anything other than revalue in the financial markets. With strong buying pressure in short positions. Being the winning sector of this debate that is present in the financial markets.

While on the other hand, the fact that at the end of this month and in the first days of July they will distribute a juicy dividend. Con una rentabilidad media de entre el 5,5% y el 7%, a través de un cargo en cuenta fijo y garantizado. Para que de esta dinámica, los inversores puedan construir una cartera de renta fija dentro de la variable, pase lo que pase en los mercados financieros. Como strategy de inversión para desarrollar una bolsa de ahorro estable a medio y largo plazo que pueda mejorar la rentabilidad de los ahorros en estos momentos precisos.

Banks make it worse

Although on the contrary, it is the banks that have had the worst performance after the decision that interest rates will not rise until the first half of 2020. To that end, they have been in negative territory in the trading session in a year to what are they being very negative for your business interests. Because its profits have been reduced as a result of the fall of the intermediation margins when the price of money reached 0%. In other words, you are having a very serious impact on your line of business and this has caused your share price to depreciate.

On the other hand, cyclical stocks are other of the main victims of this decision within the ECB. Because the reduction of business activity it is a severe blow to stock market expectations. This is what is happening at the moment with companies linked to steel and other base metals that have not received this monetary measure very well either. With very pronounced falls in the national equity markets and also outside our borders. Where the interest of small and medium investors has fallen substantially after the statement of the ECB.

Reactions of other financial assets

The rest of financial assets have also been positioned in the financial markets in this session. Where the euro has appreciated around 0.8% against the US dollar up to 1.1265. While, on the contrary, the Spanish risk premium has fallen by 5% to 82 basis points, even when it remains at historical lows that contrast with the rise in Italian fixed income. As for other financial markets, it is important to note that Brent oil has fallen to levels of $ 60 a barrel. It is these commercial markets that have been very active during the day.

Whatever the case, it is not yet the time to take positions in the equity markets. If not, on the contrary, the most judicious measure is suppose to establish the final trend that equity markets will take. So that a more leisurely and objective choice can be made from this dynamic and therefore there is less margin for error, which is ultimately what it is all about.

Higher volatility

While on the other hand, we can not be already again before the summer months where the contracting volume is noticeably reduced. And this is not good news for small and medium investors. If not rather the opposite given that the volatility in the configuration of the prices of the securities is much higher than until now. With a very important difference between its maximum and minimum prices.

More suitable for trading operations or those that are carried out in the same trading session and that require greater speed in the movements that investors take. Whatever the case, great care must be taken in operations in the current scenario of equity markets, both nationally and outside our borders. In a reality that has been imposed in recent months.

Although on the contrary, it is the banks that have had the worst performance after the decision that interest rates will not rise until the first half of 2020. To this end, they have been in negative territory in the trading session in a year to what are they being very negative for your business interests.